{"id":3115,"date":"2001-06-29T17:48:39","date_gmt":"2001-06-29T22:48:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/smperformance.wordpress.com\/?p=3115"},"modified":"2001-06-29T17:48:39","modified_gmt":"2001-06-29T22:48:39","slug":"stratvantage-consulting-llc-mikes-take-on-the-news-062901","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stratvantage.com\/index.php\/2001\/06\/29\/stratvantage-consulting-llc-mikes-take-on-the-news-062901\/","title":{"rendered":"StratVantage Consulting, LLC — Mike’s Take on the News 06\/29\/01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
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From Evernote:<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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StratVantage Consulting, LLC — Mike’s Take on the News 06\/29\/01<\/h1>\n

Clipped from: http:\/\/www.stratvantage.com\/news\/070901.htm<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

T<\/strong>he News \u2013 07\/09\/01<\/h1>\n

Disposable Tech<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

You know something has really entered the mainstream of American life when folks don\u2019t feel bad about throwing it away.<\/strong> It happened to pocket handkerchiefs (Kleenex\u00ae); it happened to lighters (Cricket <\/a>, 1961); it happened to cameras (Fuji, 1986).<\/strong> And now it\u2019s happened to cell phones. Soon it\u2019ll be laptops.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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There are several companies making disposable or recyclable phones today.<\/strong> Dieceland Technologies <\/a> has designed an extremely simple, call-only phone made of coated paper.<\/strong> Most of its circuitry is printed on the paper surface, with the exception of a few circuit chips and a battery source.<\/strong> The phones range from $10 for 60 minutes to $30 models with more features.<\/strong> Each can be thrown away, replenished with airtime or maybe even recycled.<\/strong> The company has more than 100 million units on order.<\/strong> That\u2019s right, 100 million cheap, disposable phones hitting the streets soon from just one vendor.<\/strong> A paper laptop is on the drawing board.<\/p>\n

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Telespree\u2019s <\/a> phones are a bit more durable, and are made to be recycled.<\/strong> The AirClip portion holds the battery and number of minutes purchased.<\/strong> Consumers can purchase more air and battery time in stores that carry the phone.<\/strong> The phone is also call-only, but Telespree is working on one that can also receive calls.<\/strong> Telespree\u2019s big innovation is the lack of a dialing pad; their phone is voice activated, employing technology from Nuance Communications <\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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A third company, Hop-On.com <\/a>, recently inked a deal with fiber backbone provider Williams Communications that has Williams carrying all Hop-On\u2019s long distance traffic for the next three years.<\/strong> Hop-On\u2019s phone is also extremely simple \u2013 only two buttons \u2013 and comes with 60 minutes of talk time.<\/strong> The consumer uses a hands-free earpiece and dials via voice.<\/strong> The phone supports the GSM, CDMA, and TDMA protocols, but it\u2019s not clear if that\u2019s all in one phone or not.<\/strong> The company is developing a biodegradable plastic it will soon use to fabricate its cases.<\/strong> Hop-On is also working on call receiving services as well as a package of informational services featuring sports, weather, stocks and entertainment.<\/strong> Hop-On\u2019s parent company is involved in Internet casino gaming, so we can imagine what the entertainment might involve.<\/strong> Despite the Williams deal, the future is uncertain for Hop-On.<\/strong> The publicly traded company has a market cap of $376,000 and shares traded on the pink sheets at $0.<\/strong>18.<\/p>\n

Wireless carriers spend roughly $150 in cell phone subsidies for each new subscriber, according to Current Analysis <\/a>.<\/strong> Prepaid plans are intended primarily for those who fail a credit check and are typically much more expensive on a per-minute basis than monthly plans.<\/strong> Prepaid users typically are not loyal to a carrier and don’t commit to buying a regular amount of minutes.<\/strong> Analysts figure teens and seniors are two groups ripe for cheap phone sales.<\/strong><\/p>\n

So what can we learn from the disposable phone trend?<\/strong> Well, basically that services are more important than ever.<\/strong> Assuming the phones will remain feature lite \u2013 no Internet, no WAP, no J2ME, no buttons to push \u2013 obviously the strategy is increased wireless penetration.<\/strong> Yet no one is going to get rich on $10 phones, although if Dieceland sells 100 million of them, well, that ain\u2019t hay.<\/strong> The real revenue stream is in serving the users of those phones.<\/strong> But, wait. If the future trend for wireless phones is going to be stripped down phones with extremely simple user interfaces (UIs), what\u2019s that mean for all the wonderful applications people are hoping to build?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A certain percentage of people who would otherwise buy the latest phone as their first phone will gravitate toward the simplicity and perceived cost savings of the disposable, especially once the phones can receive calls as well as place them.<\/strong> This means the penetration of the full-featured phones \u2013 the kind that need consultants to write apps for them \u2013 will necessarily suffer.<\/strong> Certainly, not everyone who would buy a disposable is a potential geek phone buyer.<\/strong> However, with handset sales no longer growing robustly, Nokia and others are counting on increasing penetration to maintain revenue.<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the other hand, let\u2019s face it, the typical geek phone UI sucks.<\/strong> Converged PDA\/phone combinations are only a little better.<\/strong> The simplicity angle of disposables just means more work programming the backend and some sort of voice interface like Nuance\u2019s or TellMe\u2019s <\/a>.<\/strong> In some ways, this simplicity is more consistent with the usual function of a phone, to receive and give audio information.<\/strong> You also don\u2019t have to be adept at doing two things at once: looking at and using a visual display while talking on the phone.<\/strong><\/p>\n

So who will benefit, no matter whether the trend is to geek phones or disposables?<\/strong> Voice interface vendors and consultants. That\u2019s the service component this particular disposable enables.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Next time: other disposable tech.<\/strong><\/p>\n

SiliconValley.com <\/a><\/p>\n

Thanks to John Skach and especially Alert SNS Reader David Dabbs for research.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Briefly Noted<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n