Current score: Six right, two wrong, many too early to tell.
|
Date
|
Prediction
|
Result (2/03)
|
| 11/93 |
"I
envision a future in which we all are required to build
advertising sheilds
around our email boxes, and advertisers constantly mutate
their From fields
to duck under our defenses and pelt us with ads."
|
True |
| 10/95 |
"The
number of hits quantification is based on current paradigms
of advertising, and may not be applicable to interactive
marketing." |
True,
clickthroughs are now the main advertising measure. |
|
2/00
|
Devices will
rule the Net.
|
Too soon to tell, but tending that way (think PDAs, radio
tags, cell phones)
|
|
8/00
|
“It’s the supply chain stupid” – what I said when asked
to summarize the future of exchanges in five words at
Delphi Executive Summit in Aspen.
|
Too soon to tell |
|
8/00
|
Private
exchanges, one to many marketplaces hosted by buyers,
will take the place of public exchanges.
|
True
|
|
10/00
|
High value trademark owners willscramble to snap up real
estate in .biz, .info. .web and others.
|
More or less. The new domains haven’t been a huge hit,
though.
|
|
11/00
|
Regarding voice portals: The business
model for voice is not yet clear, and it’s not at all
a sure thing that consumers will accept advertising.
|
Voice portals are not yet popular, and two high profile
ones have flamed out
|
|
2/01
|
Java support on cell phones won’t
show up until mid-2002.
|
Wrong. By October 2001, there were
more than 25 Java phones listed on the JavaMobiles site.
|
|
3/01
|
Wireless devices are going to permanently change the way you do
business.
|
Arguably so
|
|
3/01
|
It’s possible we’ll be seeing the death of the brand concept
in the not-so-distant future.
|
Too soon to tell
|
|
4/01
|
It will only take one high profile success per industry
to get the herd back singing the praises of exchanges
and eCommerce.
|
Hasn’t happened yet
|
|
4/01
|
The lack of support in Microsoft’s
next OS [XP] will slow Bluetooth adoption slightly,
but the main use of the technology, at least out of the
gate, will be to get rid of all the wires that clutter
up our lives.
|
True
|
|
4/01
|
Microsoft will be forced to play
catch up with a subsequent service
pack release to add Bluetooth functionality into XP.
|
True
|
|
5/01
|
Unless something is done about the 7,500 tax jurisdictions
in the US, taxing
online sales will be mayhem for online retailers.
|
Too soon to tell |
|
6/01
|
SBT (Scan-Based Trading,
where the manufacture owns the retailer’s inventory until
the sale) will eventually be the way of the world.
|
Too soon to tell, but the trend is unmistakable
|
|
6/01
|
Japan’s DoCoMo won’t meet their
October 2001 target for releasing their third generation
wireless network.
|
Wrong. DoCoMo actually started
limited release in June 2001
|
|
7/01
|
Nokia’s SmartCover wireless payment
scheme will probably work fine for employee cafeterias
and other relatively controlled situations, but not in
the broader market.
|
Too soon to tell, but there’ve been no press releases
on the technology in a year and a half.
|
|
7/01
|
The nationwide rollout of AT&T
Wireless’ GPRS service will be
slow, completed in 2002.
|
True
|
|
7/01
|
Microsoft shot themselves in the foot with their “embrace
and extend” treatment of Java.
|
Arguably
so
|
|
7/01
|
It’s not at all certain that broadband-in-the-sky
technologies will ever deliver.
|
So far so good – none have launched
|
|
3/02
|
Government regulators will attempt to shut down NANs (Neighborhood Area
Networks – community-based WiFi wireless networks) through
legislation.
|
Too soon to tell
|
|
4/02
|
Cell phone network providers will be severely threatened by Wi-Fi wireless
networks.
|
Tending that way. T-Mobile bought a Wi-Fi network.
|
|
4/02
|
Before
2010 you’ll
be able to buy the computing power equivalent to Pixar’s rendering
farm (3,500 processors, 4 terabytes of memory 196 gigabytes
of disk for your desktop.
|
Too soon to tell but you can by 160 gigabytes of disk
space now for under $200
|
|
6/02
|
Dropping or changing broadband flat rate policies will
not stop the file-swapping phenomenon.
|
Too soon to tell
|
|
6/02
|
VoWLAN
(Voice over Wireless LAN) handsets will blow away the
estimated shipments of half a million annually by 2006
and threaten the Bells and the wireless carriers.
|
Too soon to tell
|
|
6/02
|
Personal
digital video (movies of your kids, etc.) will be
broadband’s killer app.
|
Too soon to tell
|
|
6/02
|
Broadband vendors will adopt “tiered” or “metered” bandwidth plans – the
more you pay, the faster you go.
|
Too soon to tell
|
|
11/02
|
Aerie
Networks’ attempt to resuscitate the defunct $1
billion Ricochet wireless network
will be short-lived.
|
Too soon to tell
|
| 6/03 |
The for-pay provision
of wireless hotspots anyplace other than controlled areas
like airports and possibly hotels is a non-starter. No one
will ever make any significant money doing it. |
Too soon to tell |
| 10/03 |
Radio Frequency Identification
(RFID) which will change our lives in some way in the next
five years |
Too soon to tell |
. 